ESA Car Keys | The March US automotive market came in short of expectations, finishing 2017’s Q1 at -1.4%. The market’s SAAR is pacing at its lowest level since October 2014 (16.5M units). On the plus side, vehicle incentives are down.
ESA Great Graphs | First-time homebuyers fueled a brief housing rebound, as home sales perked-up in September. Prices appreciated year-over-year for the 55th straight month.
ESA Car Keys | Through three quarters of 2016, three obvious trends in your local auto market: Imports, incentives, and imbalance. SAAR for September: 17.65M units.
ESA Great Graphs | Housing market slides again in August, this time with alarmingly low inventory available to meet demand. Median prices continued their 54-month trend of increases.
ESA Car Keys | That loud thud you heard was August’s US auto market falling far short of expectations and 2016’s record sales pace. The SAAR for August finished at 16.91M units.
ESA Great Graphs | With housing inventory hovering near historic lows, US existing home sales declined in July, while pricing surged again.
Ten points in ten years.
No, we’re not talking about Jackie Moon’s all-time ABA points total.
Ten years ago, in July 2006, Detroit’s Big 3 accounted for 55% of YTD US auto sales (year-to-date vehicle sales for the first seven months of 2006). In July of 2016, we have seen those same three automakers — granted, Chrysler is now FCA — contract to a total of just 45%.
One might guess that Toyota or Honda grabbed a large portion of those 10 massive points of share — worth 1.75M vehicles on an annual basis. But as the chart clearly demonstrates, the balance of share is dispersing in the auto market.
There are “other” automakers, like Subaru, Hyundai, Kia, Audi, BMW — and even VW, despite its recent emissions issues — that have accounted for the majority of this seismic shift in the US auto market.
Looking for up-to-the-minute automotive intel for YOUR market? Follow ESA Car Keys, or tune into ESA’s Top 5 Minute video series, especially Adam Armbruster’s segment on automotive profitability challenges from ESA’s Top 5 Big Digs Webinar on August 24, 2016.
Adam Armbruster is a Senior Partner in the retail and media strategy firm ESA & Company. He can be reached at email@example.com.
What we’ve learned numerous times about a “flat year” (Volume +1.1% through 7 months):
Nobody’s really flat. Wide variance from the mean in today’s US automotive landscape, as gainers continue to grab share from laggards.
The second half of 2016 started with a bang, as July’s SAAR hit 17.77M units, the strongest July in over a decade. This tally coincided with a wave of increased incentives (up 5.2% YOY), as average transaction prices dropped. Light trucks accounted for a staggering 61.1% of volume, while passenger car sales were down -9% from July 2015.
ESA Great Graphs | US Existing Home sales rose slightly in June; the headline here is 52 straight months of price appreciation. However, there are signs of a potential slowdown.