Ten points in ten years.
No, we’re not talking about Jackie Moon’s all-time ABA points total.
Ten years ago, in July 2006, Detroit’s Big 3 accounted for 55% of YTD US auto sales (year-to-date vehicle sales for the first seven months of 2006). In July of 2016, we have seen those same three automakers — granted, Chrysler is now FCA — contract to a total of just 45%.
One might guess that Toyota or Honda grabbed a large portion of those 10 massive points of share — worth 1.75M vehicles on an annual basis. But as the chart clearly demonstrates, the balance of share is dispersing in the auto market.
There are “other” automakers, like Subaru, Hyundai, Kia, Audi, BMW — and even VW, despite its recent emissions issues — that have accounted for the majority of this seismic shift in the US auto market.
Looking for up-to-the-minute automotive intel for YOUR market? Follow ESA Car Keys, or tune into ESA’s Top 5 Minute video series, especially Adam Armbruster’s segment on automotive profitability challenges from ESA’s Top 5 Big Digs Webinar on August 24, 2016.
Adam Armbruster is a Senior Partner in the retail and media strategy firm ESA & Company. He can be reached at 941-928-7192.
What we’ve learned numerous times about a “flat year” (Volume +1.1% through 7 months):
Nobody’s really flat. Wide variance from the mean in today’s US automotive landscape, as gainers continue to grab share from laggards.
The second half of 2016 started with a bang, as July’s SAAR hit 17.77M units, the strongest July in over a decade. This tally coincided with a wave of increased incentives (up 5.2% YOY), as average transaction prices dropped. Light trucks accounted for a staggering 61.1% of volume, while passenger car sales were down -9% from July 2015.
ESA Great Graphs | US Existing Home sales rose slightly in June; the headline here is 52 straight months of price appreciation. However, there are signs of a potential slowdown.
ESA Car Keys | Today people don’t test drive cars. Instead, they try them on like fashion accessories. Never before have we seen transportation and personal communication come together like they do in today’s connected car.
ESA Great Graphs | The housing market might not be all the way back, but signs of increased spending around the home are present in many markets. (Jake Winchell, ESA)
ESA Car Keys | Once again, US light vehicle sales showed gains and losses in June 2016, as the SAAR dipped all the way down to 16.6M units.
ESA Great Graphs | The May US Housing market was Exhibit A for supply (tight) and demand (high), leading to a new peak in average existing-home prices.
ESA Car Keys | May saw in increase in the SAAR to 17.37M units, but a 6.1% drop in volume versus May 2015. GM and VW were both down big (-18% and -17.2%, respectively).
In an age of transparency in the automotive market, auto brands and dealers need a cohesive strategy to outpace the competition. The Ad Club of New York’s Verticals Series focused on Automotive in May, and featured ESA’s Adam Armbruster.