ESA Car Keys | Through three quarters of 2016, three obvious trends in your local auto market: Imports, incentives, and imbalance. SAAR for September: 17.65M units.
Ten points in ten years.
No, we’re not talking about Jackie Moon’s all-time ABA points total.
Ten years ago, in July 2006, Detroit’s Big 3 accounted for 55% of YTD US auto sales (year-to-date vehicle sales for the first seven months of 2006). In July of 2016, we have seen those same three automakers — granted, Chrysler is now FCA — contract to a total of just 45%.
One might guess that Toyota or Honda grabbed a large portion of those 10 massive points of share — worth 1.75M vehicles on an annual basis. But as the chart clearly demonstrates, the balance of share is dispersing in the auto market.
There are “other” automakers, like Subaru, Hyundai, Kia, Audi, BMW — and even VW, despite its recent emissions issues — that have accounted for the majority of this seismic shift in the US auto market.
Looking for up-to-the-minute automotive intel for YOUR market? Follow ESA Car Keys, or tune into ESA’s Top 5 Minute video series, especially Adam Armbruster’s segment on automotive profitability challenges from ESA’s Top 5 Big Digs Webinar on August 24, 2016.
Adam Armbruster is a Senior Partner in the retail and media strategy firm ESA & Company. He can be reached at email@example.com.
What we’ve learned numerous times about a “flat year” (Volume +1.1% through 7 months):
Nobody’s really flat. Wide variance from the mean in today’s US automotive landscape, as gainers continue to grab share from laggards.
ESA Car Keys | May saw in increase in the SAAR to 17.37M units, but a 6.1% drop in volume versus May 2015. GM and VW were both down big (-18% and -17.2%, respectively).
ESA Car Keys | April’s rebound in the US automotive market to 17M+ territory comes with its caveats. Sales volume was up, but daily sales rate was down for the month.
ESA Car Keys | February 2016’s auto market kept pace with a 17.4M SAAR on the strength of truck, CUV and SUV sales. Ford registered a year-over-year increase of nearly 20%.
ESA Car Keys | Not even the Blizzard of 2016 could stop the US auto market from posting another solid month in January.
ESA Car Keys | With a solid December performance, the US auto market finished 2015 with the highest full-year auto volume ever at 17.47M units, surpassing a 15-year record from 2000.
ESA Car Keys | November marks third straight month of 18M+ automotive sales pace; 2015 on target to set all-time annual volume record (17.35M units in 2000).
ESA Car Keys | October was another month pointing toward a possible new volume record in automotive sales for 2015. Average prices were up, as where incentives. Light trucks again lead the way, along with import passenger vehicles.